University Futures 
Traditional universities
Before Thinking Futures, much of my career was in universities. The focus of my work with Thinking Futures now is primarily in educational organisations, and universities in particular, so I have a strong interest in continuing to explore their future context. This page provides some resources that I've found useful.

There is much work being done on the future context for universities, either as an organisation, or in terms of particular issues such as the future of campus design or the future of learning and teaching, particularly the impact of technological change, and some universities are using futures approaches in strategy development.

A case study about trying to introduce futures work in a university can be downloaded.  This study describes an implementation that was unsuccessful, and outlines some reasons why this might have happened. 

Richard Slaughter has also written a paper about universities as institutions of foresight which presents the view that universities have a key role to play in the development of social foresight.

Sohail Inayatullah (in Inayatullah and Gidley, The University in Transformation) writes of three 'spaces' for universities in the future:

  • the elite brand name universities, which expand outward spurred on by globalisation and virtualisation;
  • convenience mega universities, which through flexible delivery, capture the majority of the world's students; and
  • smaller niche universities that focus on multiculturalism or regional and local concerns.
Universities as Organisations

Doing futures work in universities is similar to doing it in any organisation, but also unique because of the particular nature of universities. I subscribe to the idea that universities are indeed different organisational types than are business organisations, and that any attempt to introduce new ways of doing things requires a clear understanding of how universities operate and how work gets done.

Academics generally have a love of deconstruction, with a tendency to question and challenge.  In one scenario workshop at a university in 2000, a well-known commercial futurist found this tendency quite hard to deal with, commenting that he was not used to having his presentations questioned in this way.  Information used in scenarios and other futures work in universities therefore needs to be documented with robust sources. A subsequent scenario process at this university in 2002 was supported by scanning material which was indexed with sources clearly referenced, and with hard copies available during all workshops.  In this latter case, the material was accepted as valid - there was still discussion about it, but the 'deconstruction' tendency was lessened.

Academics are also generally very confident about their knowledge and their abilities and, hence, sometimes don't take kindly to suggestions that their frame of reference and their thinking might need to change and broaden out. The reaction of some senior staff with whom I have worked has been to effectively shut down, seeing no value in futures, and refusing to engage in any meaningful way.  In some cases, the reaction was hostile, ranging from comments that "you should get another job quickly because this one will take you nowhere" and "when you worked in a faculty, you were respected, but you lost that when you started in this job".  These sorts of comments reflect closed minds and minds that are stuck firmly in the present.

None of these characteristics are exclusive to universities, but their particular history and combination in action means that futures appoaches in universities need to be designed carefully.

A Reading List of the Classics

The need to understand the particular nature of universities gave rise to an excellent set of classic readings about universities and their administration.  Published by ATEM, the Suggsted Reading List of Classics in Tertiary Education Management covers fiction, non-fiction, reports and scholarly works.  It should be required reading for all those who enter universites with a business approach tucked under their arm, before they proceed to try and implement that approach as though there was no difference between a university and a business.  While people are not all that different whether in a university or a business, the culture of universities, even those that do not subscribe to the traditional Oxbridge model, needs to be understood before a relevant futures program can be designed.

 Drivers of Change 

The future of universities is being influenced by a number of major drivers of change.  There are ones we know well: globalisation, demographics, government policy on funding higher education, and the impact of IT developments on learning delivery. There are other drivers that are less well acknowledged. I've listed a couple below, and will add to them over time. 


This is a now well known video on You Tube - Did Your Know? or Shift Happens. It demonstrates how things change, and we can't assume everything will stay the same.
Generational Changes

The impact of Generation Y in education and at work is now well covered, almost to saturation point. While some might argue that generational differences are a myth since, after all, people are people, consider that those students born from the 1990s onwards have never known a world without the internet or the mobile phone. Their way of interacting with the world - and hence with work and with education - is different to previous generations, and this difference needs to be explored and understood.

The impact of such differences on the way in which students in the future might prefer to learn is a major driver of change since we cannot assume that our beliefs about the ways in which learning should be delivered will be in the same as those of the iGeneration and Generation Z when they reach university age.  No one can predict with any certainty how this driver will play out over time, but we can take it into account in the development of our strategy today.

A June, 2008 article in Campus Technology - Incubating Next-Gen.Edu - provides an insight into how some universities are merging changing learning styles and technology to better meet the needs of these generations.

Educational Gaming

Check out the website of Mark Prensky if you haven't already. His work focuses on the use of gaming to delivery learning in the 21st century.  He has some useful articles on his Writing page, including one about digital immigrants and digital natives, and another on learning via mobile phones. Mobile learning is a site about the use of mobile technologies to 'enhance the learning process'. Worth checking out.

And a sign the educational gaming is moving to the mainstream.  Check out this report (7 October 2006) from Britain about outcomes of a research project into the value of gaming as a learning tool ("a powerful learning tool").

 Some Resources 

This section provides some resources on futures work in, and about, universities. There's not a great deal of systematic work going on in universities, so if you know of any, let me know, so I can add it to the site.

A case study of Learning in Context, demonstrating how we need to be thinking much more broadly and routinely about the nature of learning spaces and learning partnerships (the Vice-Chancellor, Professor Elizabeth Harman, VIctoria University, Australia, presented this paper to a recent conference in Dublin, Ireland.)

Review of Constructing Future Higher Education Scenarios: Insights from Universiti Sains Malaysia, published in 2007 by Universiti Sains Malaysia. This book provides a detailed account of the University's scenario project, from initial stages of identifying drivers of change to the development of their preferred future and associated indicators. An excellent reference if you are interested in doing scenarios for your university.

OECD Scenarios for Higher Education: the outcomes of a meeting of OECD Education Ministers in Athens in June 2006, there are four scenarios about the future of Higher Education which have been created at the global level. Scroll down the page to get the scenarios.

Some Universities Using Futures Approaches 

Some universities have used, or are using, scenario planning and other futures methods to inform their strategy processes. 

Bemidji State University, USA

University of Tasmania, Australia

College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, USA

Leeds Metropolitan University, Design Futures, UK

and a case study from Lincoln University about their attempts to use futures approaches.

Websites on University and Higher Education Futures 

On the Horizon, which has as its mission "to inform educators about the challenges that they will face in a changing world and steps they can take to meet these challenges".

OECD University Futures Project, which has produced six scenarios for universities.

Universities UK, the Vice-Chancellors' Committee in the UK, has a long term strategy group.  While there's no detail available on the website, the concept is a good one.

National Education Association Future of Higher Education, which has two scenarios, each with descriptions of four types of colleges that might exist in the future.

Short Courses 

It is a bit of an in joke at universities that they are good at teaching others to do what they don't do themselves (ie they don't practice what they preach). Management is a good example, but so is the use of futures approaches in strategy development. These universities are among the few which offer short courses or programs on futures work.

Unviersity of Arizona, Anticipating the Future.

Cornell University program in scenario planning.

Stanford Center for Critical Foresight.

Mt Eliza Centre for Executive Education (now part of the Melbourne Business School) runs programs in strategic thinking and applying futures thinking.

University of Canberra, two day course on Strategic Foresight.

University of Strathclyde: Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies.

Books on University Futures 

Sohail Inayutallah and Jenny Gidley (editors), The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives of the Futures of the University (2000), Bergin & Garvey, Westport, Conn.

Frank Newman, Lara Couturier, Jamie Scurry, The Future of Higher Education: Rhetoric, Reality, and the Risks of the Market (2004), Jossey-Bass.

Universities in the Future (1999), available free of charge from the UK Government Foresight website.

  

Using Futures Approaches
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How to use futures approaches in your organisation.

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