Why is it important to think about the future?
Because all our decisions today are about the future. The future is going to be nothing like the past. If we don't think systematically about the future and what might happen,we are using only information from the past and the present to inform our decisions. You need to integrate past, present and future knowledge into your decision making processes.
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What are the risks if my organisation doesn't take the long term future into account?
Simply, the risk of failed strategy. And the knowledge that you have wasted a lost of time, money and energy creating short-term goals that didn't stand up to the test of the future. You will have also used up a lot of staff goodwill.
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Aren't futures approaches just like a SWOT analysis?
No. Experts on strategy, such as Henry Mintzberg have characterised the essential difference between strategic planning (using SWOTs) and strategic thinking (using foresight). Mintzberg argues that strategic planning is about analysis - the breaking down of a goal into steps, designing how the steps may be implemented, and estimating the anticipated consequences of each step. Strategic thinking, on the other hand, is about synthesis - using intuition, creativity and foresight to formulate an integrated perspective or vision of where an organisation should be heading. In other words, strategic thinking is concerned with the setting of the goal itself, not the steps needed to bring it about, which is the realm of strategic planning. The confusion lies in the belief that analysis encompasses synthesis - that strategic planning, strategic thinking and strategy-making are all the same thing. This belief itself rests upon the further assumption that prediction is possible, and that the strategy-making process can be formalised. Predicting seasons is possible, for example, but most things in an organisation's environment are beyond prediction, so strategic processes based upon prediction and single-line projections may be dangerously inadequate. Foresight is designed to open up an expanded range of perceptions of the strategic options available, so that strategy-making is potentially wiser. Once strategy has been set, then the formal procedures of strategic planning are needed to keep everything on track. Foresight is an aspect of strategic thinking, which informs strategy-making, which informs strategic planning and action. (Answer courtesy of Joseph Voros, Swinburne University of Technology , 2002.)
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How can I learn more about futures work?
This site contains much information about futures work and methods. Check out the Resources page as a starting point. You can do your own research - check out journals like Foresight, Journal of Futures Studies and Futures Research Quarterly. Have a look at the Masters in Management (Strategic Foresight) program offered by Swinburne University of Technology. And, think about joining the Education Strategy Group at Shaping Tomorrow (follow the link in the right hand frame on any page of this website).
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Can I download and circulate information from Thinking Futures?
Generally, yes, but I'd appreciate an acknowledgement (eg Maree Conway, Thinking Futures). Some information is copyright to the authors and is specified as such.
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Do you have a question I haven't answered?
Click on the Contact link at the top of the site, and send me your question. I will get back to you within two working days.
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